Aline Eloyse Lang
MSc, Transportation, University of Brasilia, Brazil
BE, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasilia, Brazil
Nationality : From
Brazil : Blumenau
Room: 3rd Floor Civil/Mechanical Building, Room E328
Phone: +64 3 364 2987 (internal: 7322)
Fax: +64 3 364 2758
Jogging, travelling, spirituality, economics, sustainability, cooking
Assessment and Mitigation of Fuel Constraint Impacts on New Zealand Economy and Freight Transport
Freight Transport Systems (FTS) provide access to many essential systems, supplying nearly everything people use. Thus, it underpins the economy and contributes significantly to its development. However, FTS are extremely dependent on fossil fuels. In New Zealand fossil fuel dependency is even further exacerbated, because biodiesel is not very well widespread in use; the rail and maritime networks are not efficiently operated, and the volume of freight and goods moved throughout the transportation system has grown significantly.
In the past few years, there has been convincing evidence of future fuel constraints due to supply limitations. The failure to address and plan accordingly to the seriousness of the issue might drastically impact on various national economies around the world. Nevertheless, there is limited knowledge about the impacts of reduced fuel availability to the economy and freight transport, which is essentially overlooked in studies, forecasts and planning.
This research aims to develop a method to assess and mitigate the risks of fuel constraints on freight transport and the New Zealand economy. The impacts of fuel constraints will be investigated using economic analysis and transport modelling techniques. The economic analysis will consider fuel constraint impacts on monetary terms to all sectors of economy. Based on the outputs of the economic analysis, a freight transport model will evaluate how fuel constraint impacts are likely to affect goods movement patterns and performance in the future. This research also investigates mitigation options (MOs) to reduce the impacts of fuel constraints on New Zealand freight transport. These MOs comprise changes in technology, infrastructure, logistics or policy actions to promote sustainable freight transport. MOs are analysed using the economic analysis and the freight transport model.
The results obtained from the freight model and the economic impact method are then investigated in the RECOFTE (Risk of Energy Constraint on Freight Transport and Economy) Method. RECOFTE analyses different scenarios of fuel constraints and their respective annual probability of occurrence. It quantifies and displays risk factors for each of the studied mitigation options and the business as usual alternative. The method is applied as part of a case study of New Zealand.
It is expected that RECOFTE contributes to policy making in evaluating options to make freight transport systems more sustainable and reduce the negative effects of fuel restraints on the economy.
- Civil and Natural Resources Engineering Department Scholarship
- Environment Canterbury
- NERI – National Energy Research Institute
Dantas, A. and Lang, A. (2008) Freight Movement in Christchurch: Data Collection and Analysis. Report prepared for Environment Canterbury. Christchurch, New Zealand.
Lang, A.E. and Fonseca, A.P. (2008). Cost-effectiveness Analysis: an application to railway projects in Brazil. 10th International Conference on Application of Advanced Technologies in Transportation (AATT), Athens, Greece.
Lang, A.E.; Dantas, A. and Krumdieck, S. (2007). Energy Risk Assessment Method for Freight Transport Systems as Function of Regional Land Use Patterns. NERI – National Energy Research Institute, NERI Conference 2007 Handbook, pg 85-86, Auckland, New Zealand.
Lang, A.E. (2007). Railways in Brazil and the Economic Analysis of Projects: an Application on Railway Projects. Master’s Dissertation in Transportation. Publication T.DM - 002A/2007, Civil and Environmental Engineer Department, University of Brasília, Brasília, Brazil, 154 p.
Lang, A.E. and Ribeiro, V.V.N. (2006). Transportation Route Definition for Emergency Events in Big Trip Generation Center. Postgraduate Conclusion Report. Faculdades da Terra de Brasília – Post-Graduation dissertation in Executive Management in Transportation and Mobilization, Brasilia, Brazil, 60 p.